Well, it’s official. Alex Smith will be headed to Kansas City on March 12, which is when the 49ers and Chiefs can execute the trade they’ve agreed to. So now, the question is how much better will the Chiefs be next season and how will Smith perform with his new squad?
As with any sports question, we can bet on it! Bovada.lv just released some nice Alex Smith prop bets, so we thought it would be fun to take a look at them and offer our take on how Mr. Smith fare in a Chiefs uniform next season. Here they are!
Total Regular Season Passing Yards – Over 3000 (-115), Under 3000 (-115)
Last season Smith threw for just over 1,700 yards, but of course he was benched for most of the second half of the season and he was with a team that focuses its offense on the running game and short passing game. With the Chiefs, he’ll likely get more of an opportunity to throw the ball downfield and he’ll get more opportunities to throw in general since he’ll be on a more pass-heavy squad and one that’s likely to be behind late in games and in need of big plays in the fourth quarter. Since he’ll be working under a weaker offensive line, Smith will probably not be as effective with Kansas City in terms of completions, but based on sheer attempts alone, he should break the 3,000 yard mark – as long as he stays healthy of course. Take the Over here.
Total Regular Season TD Passes – Over 18.5 (-115), Under 18.5 (-115)
The same logic applies to determining the over-under here. Considering Smith threw 13 touchdown strikes with the Niners last season, he should be able to throw much more with the Chiefs based on attempts. Also, since the Chiefs defense will likely be weak, the offense will get more opportunities to have the ball. However, the running game will also be weaker and not able to generate as many first downs for Smith to give him more scoring opportunities. This one is a bit of a toss-up, but I still like the Over here as well.
Total Regular Season Interceptions – Over 10.5 (-115), Under 10.5 (-115)
More attempts and more offensive possessions will likely lead to more total yards and touchdowns, but it will also likely lead to more interceptions. Smith only threw five picks a year ago, but he’ll easily be under a lot more pressure this season in more ways than one. Firstly, he’ll be more of the focal point of the offense and without a strong running game to rely on, defenses will be able to drop back in coverage and make more plays against him. Secondly, he’ll be under more pressure from rushers who will force him to make poorer decisions. So, at the end of the season, he’ll probably have thrown more than 10 and a half picks. Take the Over here too.