The Texans’ 28-16 loss to the Colts this weekend caused some shifting in the AFC playoff picture, allowing the Broncos to claim the No. 1 seed with home field throughout the AFC playoffs and the Patriots to jump up to the No. 2 spot, earning them a first round bye. Obviously, these shifts also changed some of the postseason odds for these teams and here are those updated future odds and some solid value picks as we gear up for the NFL playoffs.
Denver Broncos-3/1 to win Super Bowl, 5/4 to win AFC
Riding an amazing 11-game win streak, the Denver Broncos are the odds on favorite to win the AFC are have good odds to win the Super Bowl at 3/1, but can they keep this incredible run going?
With the way they’ve played, there’s no reason they can’t get it done, especially since the playoffs will go through Denver and Mile High, but the postseason is a one and done type situation and with the multitude of strong opponents in their path, these odds seem a little too generous, even for a team as hot as Denver.
I’m not saying it’s a bad pick, but you stand to make more money taking your wager elsewhere, although the only real threat to the Broncos appears to be the Patriots, who beat Denver earlier this season.
New England Patriots -15/4 to win SB, 8/5 to win AFC
With three Super Bowls already in the trophy case in New England, the Patriots are always a dangerous team come playoff time, but this is definitely not the best team they’ve ever fielded.
Offensively, the Pats are still one of the best in the biz, but there will be a time and a game where they won’t be able to generate the offense needed for a win and that’s when they’ll have to rely on the defense, which at times this season, hasn’t been…well…reliable.
They do have the advantage of a bye and they should be able to beat the teams in the AFC, but I wouldn’t take them on the Super Bowl pick. Overall, the Pats may be the best value with the odds in the AFC, so solid pick here.
Houston Texans-15/1 to win SB, 7/1 to win AFC
Although Houston has all the tools to win the Super Bowl on both sides of the ball, their poor performance as of late is certainly troubling and it cost them a first round bye.
Their odds have dipped significantly after losing three of their last four games and with tough teams coming up on the schedule, including next week’s match-up against a very talented Bengals team, things will not get any easier for the Texans. Personally, I would avoid them right now. They don’t have a lot of playoff experience and they are still an unproven commodity in clutch moments.
Baltimore Ravens-22/1 to win SB, 11/1 to win AFC
Here’s another team on very shaky ground. Their defense, which is usually top notch, has been burned all year and although they have plenty of scoring capability, they remain fairly inconsistent on offense. This is certainly not a Super Bowl caliber team and one that probably won’t get far even in the AFC playoffs. Stay away from the Ravens, even at 11/1, which could make you good money if they pull it off.
The Long Shots
Indianapolis Colts-50/1 to win SB and 25/1 to win AFC and Cincinnati Bengals-45/1 to win SB, 22/1 to win AFC
Yes, these teams are the long shots, but for the value, I like them a lot better than the Texans or Ravens.
Andrew Luck has proven himself to be a natural leader and one of the better quarterbacks in the league, while the defense of the Colts finally seems to be figuring things out.
The Bengals are a true wild card in every sense of the term. Yes, they are unpredictable, but as we’ve seen plenty of times before, sometimes these types of teams can make it run. What I like about Cincinnati is their raw talent. A.J. Green and Andy Dalton are a difference-making combo and one that is severely underestimated by most bettors. This duo can rack up points with the best of them, but the most underrated part of the Bengals is their defense, which is one of the best in the league. Cincy’s pass rush can terrorize any team and debilitate any normally effective offense, so look for them to make some noise this postseason.