When the odds for the AFC West were released a short while ago it came as no surprise that online sites such as Bovada, betonline, sportsbook.com and topbet had the Denver Broncos as the favorites.
Now as the teams are playing their preseason, schedules it is a good time to look at those odds now compared to when they were released.
Denver was given -600 odds as the favorite to win the AFC West. Those odds are currently on -385 on many books. The win total for the season for Denver opened at 11.5 and was at -110 and there has been no movement on that.
There is not much value in taking the Broncos to win the division, but there is in their win total.
Usually if a team has a double digit wins total the option is not that good if betting the over. Over the past 10 years when taking the under on teams with double-digit win totals, it has cashed out 56% of the time.
Offensively the team added Wes Welker at wide receiver giving Peyton Manning another target. They also have Montee Ball in the backfield and picked up Luis Vazquez to strengthen the offensive line.
On defense, Von Miller is a question mark with his suspension and possible legal problems and they lost Eric Dumervil to free agency.
Pick: Win total – Over
San Diego opened at +700 to win the AFC West and has stayed there. The Chargers win total was set at 7.5 with the Under on -135.
Much of the success or failure of San Diego will rest with quarterback Philip Rivers. He has seen his completion percentage fall and yards per attempt drop over the last two seasons, while his interceptions have increased.
Part of the blame is on the offensive line, but not all of it, as Rivers suffers from mobility problems.
Pick: Win total – Under
The Kansas City Chiefs were also picked at +700 to win the AFC West, with a win total of 7 that has since been increased to 7.5 with the Under on -130.
The Chiefs win total increased after they became a popular buy team after the lines were first released.
Last season the Chiefs lost the majority of their games by 10 points or more, did not score an offensive touchdown in five games and averaged just 13 points a game, an NFL low for the season.
They have added Alex Smith at quarterback this season who come over from San Francisco and Andy Reid was hired as the head coach.
The running attack will be strong with Jamaal Charles, but do not look for any miracles in the first season.
Pick: Win total – Over
The Oakland Raiders are close to a completely new team. Between the trades, free agent signings and losses and the draft, the Raiders look brand new. Oakland opened at +2000 to win the AFC West and that has gone up to +2225. Their win total opened at 5.5 and the under is at -125.
Even with all the trades, draft picks and free agents, the Raiders are still lacking in marquee names.
Matt Flynn was picked up to be the new quarterback but as a backup to Aaron Rogers, no one really knows his talent.
The defense is different top to bottom, but should have a strong secondary.
Pick: Win total: Over