Alabama Spread might be too high Against Texas A&M

Even with the point spread being inflated, bettors continue to bet for Alabama in its showdown with Texas A&M on Saturday.

Alabama is 1-0 SU and ATS, while Texas A&M is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. The Crimson Tide enters the game ranked No. 1 in the nation with Texas A&M ranked No. 6.

The Tide’s head coach Nick Saban has a next season revenge record of 7-1 SU as well as ATS. In those eight revenge matchups, the margin of victory has averaged nearly three touchdowns.

Saban is also 16-8 ATS when a favorite playing on the road since becoming the Alabama coach. He is also 119-85-2 all time ATS. Add to that Alabama’s extra week off and you can see why bettors are laying money on the Tide.

Odds makers seem to believe the line has become inflated. As late as Thursday night, many online books such as Bovada, topbet, betonline and sportsbook.com had Alabama as high as an 8-point favorite after the opening line of 7, while the line has peaked at 9.5.

This line was posted a day earlier, on Sunday, than usual, as it should be the biggest bet on game for this weekend.

At Bovada, they said the public is very hard on the Tide at the moment, but professional bettors have stayed away. As of Thursday morning, the pros were still no getting on the line, but odds makers said it could ease back up to 9.

Last season the Aggies, led by Johnny Manziel, upset the Tide in Tuscaloosa 29-24. The Aggies were 13.5-point road ‘dogs in the game. In that game, the Tide had just beaten LSU the previous week and was both emotionally and physically spent. However, now they have had two weeks of rest.

If, bettors are thinking of taking the points, consider that Alabama had only 206 yards versus Virginia Tech with only 96 on the ground.

The Tide has three new offensive linemen starting this season. Quarterback A.J. McCarron was sacked four times in the first game.

Texas A&M has three starters on defense returning from suspension, which is somewhat convenient most think.

The line is a tougher call than the OVER/UNDER. How can a point total be 60-plus when Alabama is playing?

I like the OVER, and if I had to take the line, I would take ‘Bama less the points.

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