Season Record 8-12-1, Last Week 2-1-1
Oregon (-39.5) at Colorado – “He’s calling a game with a spread of almost 40 points?” You’re darn right I am and I feel good about it too. The first thing I noticed about Oregon in terms of trends was that the total has gone OVER in seven of the Ducks’ last ten games and six of their last seven on the road. Bottom line? The Ducks have proven they can score at will.
The Buffs are 2-1 but their wins came against Colorado State and Central Arkansas with their loss being a whipping by Oregon State in Corvallis. This is an improved Colorado team compared to recent years but I cannot see this team hanging with the Ducks unless an early snowstorm hits the Rockies.
Take the Ducks to cover even at that ridiculous number.
Western Michigan (+22) at Toledo – I don’t believe in the concept of ‘it’s a sure thing’ but this is about as close as it can get. Toledo is 2-3 but has losses against Florida and Missouri and both came on the road. While those games ended in defeats, they were far from blowouts as the Rockets held tough throughout.
Western Michigan is 0-5 with a loss at home to FBS Nicholls State. They also dropped hard-fought games against Michigan State and Northwestern but then were destroyed by Iowa in Iowa City two weeks ago by 56 points. This Broncos team is incredibly young and has injuries in tough spots.
The Rockets boast one of the nation’s top rushers in David Fluellen and are playing at home in the Glass Bowl where they rarely lose. WMU is 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 road games. Take the Rockets to win by more than 22.
Maryland (+16.5) at Florida State – The Terps are the first ranked team the Seminoles will face in 2013 which is why they are averaging over 51 points per game through four games. FSU looked pretty mortal for awhile last Saturday in Chestnut Hill as they fell behind early by double-digits to Boston College. Once they woke up, they went on to defeat the Eagles 48-34.
Maryland has not played a ranked team either en route to having the nation’s third best scoring defense. They also run the ball very well ranking 24th in the country. They are however, 2-5-1 against the spread in their last eight games in Tallahassee. I think last week was a bit of a wake-up call for Florida State and I expect a big-time effort against the Terps. Take FSU to cover that spread.
Ohio State (-7) at Northwestern – This game is being called the biggest one at Northwestern since at the very least their Rose Bowl year of 1995. A win over unbeaten Ohio State would vault them into the favorites’ role for the Big Ten title. The problem for the Wildcats is that Ryan Field will have as much scarlet and gray in it as it will purple. The Buckeyes travel well and the Wildcats rarely sell out.
With that said, Northwestern has the ability to hang with Ohio State but I believe they must do what Wisconsin couldn’t last week in Columbus and that’s get out early against the Buckeyes. The Wildcats can’t afford to get behind because they cannot become one-dimensional.
Northwestern is 1-4 against the spread in their last four games at home against OSU. That doesn’t bode well for the Wildcats and I think the depth of the Buckeyes will prove too much. I like Ohio State to cover the spread.