The field of 68 in the NCAA Tournament has been narrowed down to just 4 following this past weekend’s Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
Four teams – Florida, Connecticut, Kentucky, Wisconsin – will play for the national championship. On Saturday, the national semifinals will be held with the two winners playing Monday night April 7 for the national title.
In the first semifinal on Saturday, Florida has opened as a favorite by 6.5 points over Connecticut. This spread is considered by many to be inflated.
The second game in Arlington on Saturday features Wisconsin versus Kentucky with the Wildcats laying just 2 points and in this game. Kentucky as the favorite is undervalued.
Other bookmakers including Bovada and topbet have put Florida as a 4.5-point favorite, which gives value to the underdog.
Connecticut has won three straight outright when a dog. The Huskies were dogs by +5 versus Michigan State, +1 versus Iowa State and +4.5 versus Villanova. Connecticut is 6-1 against the spread in their past 7 games overall with five of them as a dog.
Some books, including betonline and sportsbook.com made Connecticut the favorite in the Elite Eight game against Michigan State since they had a de facto home court advantage playing the game in Madison Square Garden.
Florida and Connecticut’s opening line for total points could be tantalizing for those that like the OVER. The line opened at 125 and was quickly pushed up to 126.5 early Sunday night.
However, before anyone reading this runs to the window to lay on the OVER, Connecticut and Florida have been two of the best UNDER teams this season. Overall, in Gators games the UNDER finished 22-11-1, while for the Huskies it was 23-13.
However, of the four games that Connecticut has played in this year’s NCAA Tournament only one, their win over Michigan State ended UNDER. However, in the Huskies run up to the NCAA tourney, the UNDER cashed in 9 straight games and 13 of their final 14.
In games that have had totals of 129 or lower this season, the UNDER is 9-3 for the Gators.
For Connecticut only three games have had point totals in the 120s and all were played against Cincinnati and the UNDER cashed in all three.
Kentucky has now found some believers in its run through the tournament. As they went from dogs of 4.5 points versus Wichita State as well as Louisville, to a favorite of 2 points against the Wolverines of Michigan and now the Badgers of Wisconsin.
Some bookmakers have Kentucky has high as -3.5 which could suggest taking the -2 on Bovada or sportsbook.com would have value in laying a shorter price.
As an underdog this season, Wisconsin has covered the number in 4 of 5 games. They won three of those in the regular season and one in the tourney against Arizona in the Sweet 16.
As the favorite, Kentucky has covered the number in 16 of 27 games this season.
There will be plenty of movement in the line and the point total throughout this week so check back with us and our sportsbooks for all your betting needs.