The Denver Broncos have been the favorite for their past 30 games and if the line stays, as it is now, the Broncos will be favored for their 31st straight game against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl 48.
The current line as of Thursday, 10 days prior to the Super Bowl has Denver at -2.5 with the point total sitting on 48. This season in all games including the postseason, the Broncos are 15-3 straight up and 11-7 against the number. The point total has cashed to OVER on 11 games and the UNDER on 7.
There are a number of trends, stats and numbers to consider with Denver in the Super Bowl.
- Denver has been favored in 30 straight games and only twice have they been favored by fewer than three points.
- Over the past two seasons, Denver is 9-2 ATS when a favorite by less than 7 points.
- The past five games played by Denver have cashed on the UNDER and the two games the Broncos have scored the least have been the past two playoff games this season.
- Denver however has scored at least 26 points in 22 of its past 24 games.
- As the favorite, Peyton Manning teams have a record of 109-89-6 against the spread. That is over 55%, including the regular and post season.
- Since Manning started playing for Denver, the Broncos against the number are 22-13 a profitable 63%.
- Since 2012 when Manning became the starting quarterback, Denver is 15-4 ATS, when they hold opponents to 21 or fewer points.
- The AFC favorite in the Super Bowl has not covered since 2007 when Indianapolis beat Chicago as a 7-point favorite. In five of the six appearances the Broncos have made in the Super Bowl the games has ended OVER.
Denver’s strength on offense is not a secret as the first eight regular season games went to the OVER on points. However, the defense for Denver has picked up and has not given up over 17 points in its last four games.
With the strength the Broncos have on offense, and with their defense playing better and better each week, laying less than one field goal looks good for many bettors.
However, those opting for the point total will find it a tougher decision. The recent improvement on the Denver defense, the weather forecast and the always-tough Seattle defense could keep this Super Bowl low scoring.
However, Denver has been profitable at 11-7 on the OVER. The worst-case scenario of an UNDER bettor is if the weather is good and the Broncos fall behind in the early going.
In their six prior Super Bowl appearances, the Broncos are 2-4 SU and ATS. The OVER is 5-1 in those same Super Bowls.