Although the Big Dance of college basketball is the NCAA Tournament, there is usually more value betting the week prior to the NCAA Tournament during conference tournaments.
Since there is a large pool of games to select from, often time odds makers cannot set sharp lines on each game and that edge at times can be exploited by bettors who are opportunistic.
During conference tournament week teams that continue to win can play two, sometimes three and occasionally four straight days. Rest becomes something of a premium and fatigue starts to take its toll, even though the players are in their teens or early twenties.
In regular season play, schools will often have 3 to 4 days and sometimes a week between games. Even during the NCAA Tournament teams have at least one day of rest between games during the Thursday through Sunday format.
Therefore, the theory that players being tired could lead to less scoring and potential value on the UNDER has been researched.
A study was done by taking all the games where both teams had played the night before, thus not including the first round games for any conference. The research showed that out of approximately 550 games the UNDER cashed 54.5% of the time.
This theory really can only be used on the conference tournaments since the team have a day of rest or more during March Madness, Nevertheless it is something to take a look at when picking the over/under especially if a team has played an unusual number of games within a short time period.
On Saturday, the Big 12 and ACC conference tournaments will be decided and each of the four teams playing has played back-to-back games. North Carolina one of the teams in the ACC final will be playing for the fourth consecutive day when they meet Notre Dame.
The over/under for the Big 12 championship game between Kansas and Iowa State has been set at 151. The two teams played in early February and the two teams combined to score 165 points. In the ACC final, the Tar Heels face the Fighting Irish. The point total for that has also been put at 151. Those two teams met earlier in the season and scored a combined 141 points.