Hit the Ground Running With Super Bowl, MVP Odds Already

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Super Bowl XLIX Odds are out as well as those for MVP. Choose wisely.

Super Bowl XLIX is nearly two weeks away but not only is the line for the game out there for your consideration but so are odds for the game’s Most Valuable Player. Today I’m giving you both and my early thoughts on both the game and my best MVP bets.

Super Bowl XLIX New England (-1) vs Seattle – Already, we’ve seen the spread move from the Patriots +1 to the Patriots -1. That sends numerous messages about the way Las Vegas is already looking at this game. My best guess right now is that concerns over Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas have to be the key factors. Both were scheduled to have MRIs yesterday.

Obviously Sherman’s absence would have a significantly higher impact on the line than would Thomas but that shouldn’t bemoan Thomas’ value to the Seahawks’ defense. It’s just that Vegas tends to see star players and their abilities much more up close than other players and for the most part that makes sense.

New England is relatively healthy for this time of year. Their biggest question mark will be at center where rookie Brian Stork did not play on Sunday due to injury. His backup played well and therefore if that stays as is, I expect little influence on the line.

The only possible exception to that however is the fact Seattle is much better on the front line than Indianapolis was so that should be factored in here.

I think one other key area favoring the Patriots is that their secondary did pretty well against better receivers than they’ll see from Seattle. That’s arguable, but I don’t see a clear distinction between the receivers from either team really. Vegas will have to take into consideration just awful the Seattle receivers looked for three and half quarters on Sunday.

Unless the news on Sherman is him having to sit out then I don’t expect this line to move a whole lot in the coming days.

Avril

Betting The Field means a guy like Cliff Avril could win the MVP Award with some sacks and forced turnovers.

Super Bowl XLIX MVP – Odds to Win      

Tom Brady                                        3/2

Marshawn Lynch                        15/4

Russell Wilson                             15/4

Rob Gronkowski                            9/1

LeGarrette Blount                        12/1

Richard Sherman                        25/1

Doug Baldwin                              33/1

Kam Chancellor                          33/1

Julian Edelman                          33/1

Darrelle Revis                             33/1

Earl Thomas                               40/1

Bobby Wagner                            50/1

Brandon LaFell                          66/1

Jermaine Kearse                        66/1

Byron Maxwell                           66/1

K.J. Wright                                 66/1

Shane Vereen                             75/1

Danny Amendola                    100/1

Patrick Chung                           100/1

Jamie Collins                            100/1

Dont’a Hightower                    100/1

Devin McCourty                        100/1

Rob Ninkovich                          100/1

Luke Willson                             100/1

Stephen Gostkowski                 150/1

Steven Hauschka                      150/1

Malcolm Smith                          150/1

Field                                                25/1

It’s very clear to me that Vegas thinks Seattle will win on the legs of Marshawn Lynch rather than behind quarterback Russell Wilson. That said, Wilson will be a strong candidate to win the game’s Most Valuable Player because of one simple reason; Bill Belichick always looks to take away the opponent’s best player. This would be Lynch which means Wilson will need to produce.

I’m going to go ahead and tell you not to even think about laying your cash on a kicker. In 48 previous Super Bowls, one has never been selected MVP. Choosing a defensive player as MVP isn’t as ridiculous as it might sound. Nine times a defender has been chose the games MVP and in one of those instances it was in a losing effort (Chuck Howley, DAL).

The Field might be a nice play in this one if you are thinking of going away from the mainstream. I can see a guy like Michael Bennett or Cliff Avril having a couple of sacks and maybe a forced fumble or two. I would also say the same of the Pats’ Vince Wilfork who could cause some serious problems for the Seattle running game.

Never rule out a back-up tight end or fullback either which makes The Field an interesting play.

 

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