I Expect a Lot of Points in the Games I Like in the NFL …

Roethlisberger

The Steelers must protect Ben Roethlisberger in order to beat Buffalo today.

I’ve got four games I’m watching today and I expect a lot of points to be scored in all of them. Check them out.

Buffalo (+3) at Pittsburgh – The last time the Buffalo Bills left the city of Pittsburgh with a victory, a guy named O.J. Simpson had just reeled off over 200 plus yards rushing. That’s the mid-1970′s for those scoring at home. I find that tidbit interesting because the Bills come into Heinz Field today with a very good rushing attack and the Steelers are having all kinds of trouble stopping the run.

The positive for the Steelers is that despite a porous defense, coordinator Dick LeBeau is 16-2 against rookie quarterbacks and E.J. Manuel gets the start today after missing several weeks with an injury.

Buffalo enters 0-5 against the spread in their last five trips to the Steel City. Pittsburgh’s inability to protect Ben Roethlisberger and the Bills’ running attack tells me otherwise though. Take the Bills in Pittsburgh.

Dallas (+7) at New Orleans – Saints’ defensive coordinator Rob Ryan welcomes his former team to the Big Easy today. Dallas comes in with the NFC East lead which might not be saying a whole considering how bad the division is. Dallas pulled out a huge win last week over Minnesota in the final seconds while the Saints were struggling to keep Drew Brees protected in a loss to the New York Jets.

Ryan has worked wonders with the Saints defensively and his unit will be challenged by Tony Romo and a crew of good receivers. The Saints will be happy to be back in the dome where the offense clearly runs better. Dallas is 1-5 against the spread in their last six games on the road in New Orleans.

I expect a lot of points and with the over/under listed at 50 take the over. The Cowboys seem play close games so I like them with the points but New Orleans to win the game.

Lynch

I expect large doses of Marshawn Lynch today in Atlanta.

Seattle (-4.5) at Atlanta – This match-up had so much potential back at the beginning of the season but my how things have changed. This is a rematch of a great divisional playoff game from a year ago won by the Falcons but I don’t see that happening today.

The Seahawks top-rated defense will continue to cause problems for Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan who has been a turnover machine of late. He is supposed to get Roddy White back today but I don’t know how healthy he really is. Offensively for Seattle, I expect large doses of Marshawn Lynch and a nice game from Russell Wilson because Atlanta just can’t pressure the quarterback.

The Falcons enter at 2-6 against the spread in their last eight home games against Seattle. Despite the one o’clock start, I expect the Seahawks to cover today.

Denver (-7) at San Diego – We really don’t know quite what to expect from the Denver Broncos today. They come off their bye-week with their head coach John Fox in Charlotte. He is recovering from heart surgery. That means defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio is the interim coach. What I think you’ll see happen is that Peyton Manning will take even more control of the offense.

San Diego is coming off of a very frustrating overtime loss to Washington. Philip Rivers is playing much better under offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt than he did in previous years under Norv Turner. Look for balls to be flying most of the day in Southern California because both defenses give up significant passing yards.

The over/under today is 55 and you’d be wise to go with the over. The Broncos are 5-9-4 against the spread in their last 18 games in San Diego. Look for lots of points today and take San Diego to keep it within seven.

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