Two of the best offenses and inconsistent defenses across the country meet Saturday in Death Valley when the Texas A&M Aggies and offensive leader Johnny Manziel visit the LSU Tigers and quarterback Zach Mettenbrger.
Both teams enter the game rested and healthy following a week off and are loaded with talent on the offensive side of the ball.
Head Coach Les Miles at LSU is 28-41-5 ATS in the SEC during nine seasons leading the Tigers. However, earlier in the week, bettors were on the Tigers side and the spread opened at -3.5 but was up to -4.5 by Friday.
This game should have offense up and down the field, but check weather reports near game time before going online to see the final point spread on Bovada or betonline. The preliminary reports call for a bunch of rain to pound the area on Saturday.
The line currently has LSU -4.5, while the point total is at a high of 71. The line could move both point spread and total as the weekend approaches and a better weather forecast is determined.
The last season when the two teams met, LSU won 24-19 covering as a 3.5 favorite at College State, Texas.
In that game, Manziel was not himself throwing three passes for interceptions and no touchdowns. In 9 of the past 12 home games for LSU, the OVER has cashed on the total.
Manziel this season has been nothing short of spectacular. The defensive unit for LSU will have plenty of work matching up against Mike Evans one of Manziel’s favorite targets at wide receiver.
However, the defense for Texas A&M is a big concern for Aggies coaches. The Aggies top the SEC in scoring on offense with 49.2 points per game, but rank close to the bottom in scoring defense, as they allow nearly 31 points per game.
If this game becomes a shootout, as most expect it to be, play on special teams might make the difference. The Aggies have blocked three punts this season.
LSU’s defense is a far cry from years past. They are allowing big chunks of yardage, especially against two top teams Alabama and Georgia. Worrisome for the Tigers, is that the Aggies offense is better than both Georgia’s and Alabama’s.
However, the Tigers on offense lead the country in converting third downs, which helps keep opposing offenses on the bench. If Manziel is on the bench, he cannot work his magic for Texas A&M.
Odds makers and bookmakers give LSU a 3 point spread over Texas A&M if the game were on a neutral field. Add into that the massive advantage the Tigers have playing in Death Valley and it makes value to have LSU on Saturday.
Add to that, the fact the Texas A&M defense is atrocious giving up an average of 6 yards per play and you have a recipe for an LSU win.
The OVER is 16-4 between the two teams this season.
Pick: LSU and the OVER