MLB Offensive Props Favor the UNDER

Odds makers have released hundreds of props for the Major League Baseball season. Several of the props are geared toward results prior to this summer’s All-Star break giving bettors something to look forward to prior to the end of the 162-game regular season.

When looking over the totals in the props for offensive results on two-way props, there are a few that appear to be high considering that strong pitching has dominated.

Pitching dominates so much now that the MLB has considered shrinking the strike zone at the lower end. The rules committee will analyze the strike zone during this season with a potential changed coming for the 2016 season.

However, bookmakers know most gamblers love to bet the OVERs, which makes them factor that into their final numbers.

One of the two-way props that stands out is the OVER 58.5 for the leader in stolen bases. More teams appear to be trying to get one of their runners in scoring position through a stolen base due to the game being dominated by pitching and runs are not scored as easily any longer.

Kansas City used the stolen bases as an offensive weapon on many occasions last season, which helped them to reach the World Series. Since copycatting is commonplace, look for more teams to use the Royals form of advancing runners.

However, do not look for stolen bases in the number that were posted during the 1970s and ‘80s, but it seems quite probable at least one player will steal 58.5 bases this season.

When it comes to power, the big what if is whether Giancarlo Stanton can remain healthy during the entire season. If he is able to play the full 162-game schedule, which he has not done for three straight seasons, he will likely hit the OVER on home runs of 44.5 and in RBIs of 126.5.

Last season Nelson Cruz was the MLB home run leader with just 40, and Adrian Gonzalez led in RBIs with 116. Therefore, the numbers 44.5 and 126.5 looks high.

It is expected that pitching will dominate again and some feel even more so than last year.

When making a choice for over/under on a two way prop beat, make sure you factor how strong the pitching has been the past few seasons. Most of the props that are two-way and offensive look like solid UNDERs with the exception of the stolen bases and total hits. The two-way total hits prop is sitting at 206.5, there has to be at least one hitter in MLB who can record more than 206.5 hits. However, just one player last season, Jose Altuve had over 206.5 hits, with 225.

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