NFC Conference Championship: Seattle Laying 3.5 at Home

The NFC Championship Game will be played on Sunday night in the Pacific Northwest where the Seattle Seahawks will host the San Francisco 49ers at CenturyLink Field.

The two teams have split their regular games with each winning on their home field. The two teams know one another very well.

Seattle won the NFC West by one game over San Francisco and had the best record in the NFC. This rubber match will determine which team represents the NFC in the Super Bowl on February 2.

Seattle was hoping that the return of Percy Harvin last week would help them put life in their stagnant offense. However, Harvin caught just 3 passes before leaving with a concussion. Harvin will miss Sunday’s game versus the 49ers.

Seattle’s offense has not scored over 26 points in any of their past five games. Over that period, quarterback Russell Wilson has passed for 200 yards only once. The team’s running game is fourth in the league.

Defensively, the Seahawks are No. 1 overall in the NFL and it is their defense that dictates outcomes of games for the team.

San Francisco hopes to have cornerback Carlos Rogers back after missing the first two games of the postseason. However, the 49ers defense had fared well nevertheless giving up just a combined 30 points against the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers in their two playoff games to date.

The 49ers defense was No. 3 this season in the league, but could be playing better than any time at the moment. Since the third week of the season, the 49ers defense has give up over 20 points just once.

Offensively the 49ers have improved of late. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick did not play well during the first part of this season, but over the past five games including the postseason, has played very well.

However, versus Seattle Kaepernick struggled completing fewer than 50% of his passes and averaging only 151 yards through the air in the two games.

The line currently on Bovada is Seattle -3.5, but on other sites such as topbet, betonline and sportsbook.com is between -3 and -3.5. If Seattle were playing on a neutral site, the game would be a tossup. Home field advantage at CenturyLink field is worth the 3.5 points.

The point total is set low at 39.5. The two teams have exceptional defenses and between the two allowed only 31 points a game throughout the season.

Seattle failed to cover last week at home versus New Orleans, but covered in 11 of 16 games during the regular season.

San Francisco was 10-5-1 ATS this season. On the road, the 49ers are 8-1-1 ATS during the regular season and two playoff games. However, their only loss against the spread this season was their 29-3 loss to Seattle on the road.

Prediction

The teams are as evenly matched as two teams can be, especially on defense. I like the 49ers with the 3.5 points.

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