No-Huddle and Passing Game Make the OVER More Profitable

Do not look now, but it is July and only two months until the start of the NFL regular season. This month teams head to training camp and preseason games will start shortly after that.

Scoring continues to increase in the NFL as last season it reached 46.8 points a game, which was an all-time high average.

The OVER during the regular season last year according to data compiled from Bovada and sportsbook.com was 138-127, which was a rate of 52%.

Playing OVER on teams that play fast would have given the bettor a record of 92-67-1 or 58% as a faster pace translates to more points from more possessions.

The Philadelphia Eagles under the tutelage of Chip Kelley ran a play every 23 seconds which lead the league, while Carolina average nearly 30 seconds between plays, which was the slowest in the league.

The teams that were the top ten fastest were Philadelphia with a OVER/UNDER record of 9-7, Buffalo 10-6, New England 9-7, Denver 11-5, Cleveland 9-7, Jacksonville 9-7, Baltimore 8-8, Washington 8-8, Minnesota 12-4 and Miami 7-8-1.

The slowest ten teams in the league between plays were 78-81-1 on the OVER/UNDER.

Scoring has increased due to the number of pass attempts increasing. In 2008, the average number of pass attempts per game per team was just 32.3. In 2013, that number increased to 35.4 or three more per game per team translating to nearly 71 pass attempts in one game.

Last year was the first time that teams played with formations that included three receivers over half the time. Three or more receivers were used on 59% of the total plays.

Scoring in 2009 averaged 43 points per game between the two teams and now is at 46.8.

No-huddle is being run more often now than before. In 2013, 4,009 plays were run from the no-huddle formation compared to only 2,345 in 2013. The plays with no huddle represented 8% of all the plays in 2014 and are expected to pass 10% this season.

According to data from topbet and betonline, Philadelphia led the league in no huddle plays with 705, while Denver had 537, Baltimore followed with 383, and Buffalo had 334.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were playing poorly on offense when they decided to use the no-huddle last season. The results over their final 9 games were 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS. In points, the Steelers went from averaging just under 18 points per game in their first 7 games to 28 points per game in their last 9 games.

Over the stretch 9 games, the Steelers cashed on six OVERS, with an average of nearly 10 points over the point total, even taking into consideration the point total for the 3 UNDERS during that stretch.

Look for the Steelers to play even more plays this season out of the no-huddle formation.

With the way scores are piling up, it might be worth taking harder looks at point totals and not just the point spreads when it come to wagering on the NFL.

LinkedInFacebookBlipShare