Pitchers and catchers have already arrived at spring training and many online betting sites have released a number of props for pitchers.
It is not easy trying to predict pitchers. Much of that is due to so many factors involved that are out of their control. Nevertheless, even though it is impossible to predict run support or injuries for a pitcher, there is some good value in the props for pitchers on Bovada, topbet, betonline and sportsbook.com.
Any Pitcher: Total Wins 21 OVER -135, UNDER +110
During the past few season a resurgence in pitching across the major leagues has taken place. However, that has not translated necessarily into more wins by an individual pitcher.
Since the beginning of the 2009 season, just one time has a pitcher recorded more than 21 victories. That took place in 2011 when Detroit’s Justin Verlander recorded 24.
One six occasions there have been pitchers that have won 21 games during that same span including last year when Detroit’s Max Scherzer recorded 21. Based upon those recent trends and nothing else the UNDER is a better play.
Number of Strikeouts: 249.5 OVER -105 UNDER -105
Only four times over the last five seasons, has the OVER on this be hit by pitchers. One of those times was last season when Yu Darvish for the Texas Rangers recorded 277 strikeouts. That was the most in any season since the 290 Randy Johnson recorded in 2004. By taking the OVER in this prop, the bettor is counting on Darvish to be healthy all season.
There is also Verlander who has recorded 2 seasons with 250 or more Ks, Scherzer who had 240 Ks during last season and Stephen Strasburg who has averaged 194 over the last two seasons while throwing for less than 184 innings each season.
Darvish will likely surpass 250 strikeouts if he can remain healthy, but the better value is with the UNDER.
Individual Wins Totals Regular Season
David Price – Win total 15
Price has pitched nearly perfect ball or subpar for the past four seasons when taking into consideration wins. He has hit 19 or more wins on two occasions and below 13 on two occasion.
The southpaw is a very talented pitcher as a Cy Young award is testament to that. However, triceps problems have nagged him. Last season he made only 27 starts. A stint of two weeks on the DL or a trade will make it tough for the talented pitcher to reach 16 wins. The value here sits on the UNDER.
James Shields: Win total 13.5
Shields has started 31 or more games for seven consecutive seasons and in his past four seasons has recorded 13 or more wins each year.
Last season he had 13 wins despite his teammates giving him less than 4 runs of support a game. Shields tied Clayton Kershaw for most quality starts in the league, which is six innings of pitching and three or less earned runs allowed.
Kansas City is expected to contend for the playoffs this season and that means Shields should have value on the OVER.