It’s really hard to put into perspective just what the College Football Playoff Committee is facing this week and in the week to come. On Sunday, December 7th, the committee will announce the four teams that will play in major college football’s first-ever playoff.
Let’s address this week and what we can expect from the committee first.
Alabama will remain the top-seed with their win over Auburn. It was the highest-scoring Iron Bowl in history and despite giving up a boatload of points and passing yards, the Tide will remain in the top spot heading into the SEC Championship Game.
While it would not surprise me to see Oregon jump into the top spot following their blowout win over rival Oregon State, I think they’ll stay put at number two. The Beavers were not nearly the level of competition that Auburn was so look for the Ducks to stay at number two.
At number three, I expect the committee to stick with Florida State. To be really, really honest here I can actually see them dropping to number four because they continue to win ugly against lesser competition. Jameis Winston has not played well but the team keeps surviving and the name of the game is to win so look for the ‘Noles to stay at three.
The fourth and final spot is again filled with intrigue. I feel that TCU will stay because the committee has favored strength of schedule over head-to-head competition. The Horned Frogs destroyed a Texas team that was thought to be improving while Baylor survived Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are arguably the worst team in the Big 12.
TCU finishes at home against a pretty bad Iowa State team while the Baylor Bears finish with a very good Kansas State in Waco.
I expect to see Ohio State at five and Baylor at six, but the injury to Buckeyes’ QB J.T. Barrett could be a factor at least this week in the opinion of the committee.
So how will things shakeout?
Next Saturday could reveal a lot of status quo or we could see massive changes to the playoff participant list. Alabama plays a very good Missouri team in the SEC Title game. Oregon plays the only team to beat them this season, Arizona, in the Pac-12 Title game and Florida State will play in the ACC Championship game against a very hot Georgia Tech team who just beat Georgia in Athens.
Let’s imagine for a second that Bama, Oregon and Florida State all lose. With Ohio State playing in the Big 10 Title game against Wisconsin, a win by them immediately vaults them into the playoff but who else would join them?
Arizona would have to get a spot right? They would have been a top four team twice in the same season. With just one loss would Florida State be given a reprieve? I doubt it because the committee hasn’t been impressed with FSU all season. The most interesting question to me is what happens if TCU and Baylor both finish with just one loss.
Would the committee seed them ahead of a two-loss Alabama team?
Obviously there’s a lot that can still happen. Should total chaos ensue, can we rule out teams like Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech or Missouri? I don’t think so simply based on who they would have beat this coming Saturday.
For tomorrow, plan on Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and TCU. For next week, plan on just about anything.