Half-Point Calculator

    The Half point calculator determines the value of buying or selling half points for the MLB totals and the NCAA football, the NCAA Basketball and the NBA and NFL spread and totals.

     

    Inputs

    • League:This identifies the league of interest.
    • Bet Type:Either total or spread bet typeEither total or spread bet type
    • Odds Type:Can be either US or decimal odds, although if wrong odds are selected it will normally auto convert this.
    • Spread/Total:Depending on the bet type this is where the spread or the total is entered. Negative figures are automatically converted into positive numbers. With Pick ‘em games this should be entered as zero. Once the field is filled the program will automatically fill in the push probabilities using the default values.
    • Fave/Over Price:In the case of a spread bet this is the money line adjustment factor for the favorite. In the case of a total bet it is for the over. For example, if the spread market were Team A +3.5 -120 / Team B -3.5 +100, the figure entered would be -120. If the total market were Over 42.5 +125 / Under 42.5 -145 the figure entered would be +125. Advanced users may choose to enter a percentage value into this field; this will then be converted to a zero vig price. One example of this would be entering 25%, the program would then auto fill in+300 for the fave/over and -300 for the dog/under.
    • Dog/Under Price:The underdog money line adjustment factor in the case of a spread bet, or the under in the case of a total bet. Spread market example being Team A +3.5 -120 / Team B -3.5 +100, the figure to enter would be +100. However if the total market were Over 42.5 +125 / Under 42.5 -124 the figure to enter would be -145. Advanced users may wish to enter a percentage value and this will be converted to a percentage with zero vig value. An example being if the percentage entered was 66.667% the program would calculate this to fill in -200 for the fave/over field and -200 for the dog/under field.
    • Calculate:When this button is clicked prices and edges will be calculated into the field below.

    Outputs

    • Spread/Total:These boxes display the spreads or totals within 1½ points of the totals in the Spread/Totals box. The calculator becomes far less accurate when the figure moves farther away from the starting spread/total.
    • Push Prob:This box also allows input. The calculator will automatically supply the figures for the probabilities if pushing against the total spread or it is possible to enter these manually.
    • Fave/Over Price:Also takes input. This shows the payout odds on the favorite/over. It is possible to manually enter the figures here to determine the juice you are paying or the edge you have received.
    • Fave/Over Edge:This shows the edge you are receiving for positive values or the juice you are paying for negative values by betting on the favorite at a set price. Hovering the curser over a cell in this column will also highlight the win probability.
    • Dog/Underdog Price:Also takes input. This contains the odds payout or the price on the underdog/under at the given spread/totals. This corresponds to the same vig as the initial payout odds. It is possible to manually enter values in these cells.
    • Dog/Underdog Edge:This shows as a negative value for the juice you are paying and a positive value for the edge you are receiving by bettering on the underdog/under at the odds (price) set. The implied win probability will be shown if the cursor is allowed to hover over one of the fields in this column.

    Example:

    The offshore market (which you believe to be accurately reflecting the true underlying probabilities without bias) is offering the following NFL market:

    Offshore Market
    Tampa Bay +2½ -110 OVER 39½ +103
    Carolina -2½ +102 UNDER 39½ -113

    While at the same time your local is offering:

    Local Market
    Tampa Bay +2½ -110 OVER 39½ -110
    Carolina -2½ -110 UNDER 39½ -110

    Your local allows you to buy up to 3 spread or total half-points for 10¢ except on and off the 3-point on spreads where he charges 20¢.
    What would represent your most profitable spread and your most profitable total that you can bet with your local?

    Let’s examine the spread. First, we need to set up on the top section of the calculator the ‘true’ market as reflected by the offfshore market.

    1. set the League to ‘NFL’
    2. set the Bet Type to ‘Spread’
    3. set the Odds Type to ‘US’
    4. enter 2.5 in the Spread box
    5. enter +102 in the Fave Price box (the favorite, Carolina -2½ is being offered at +102)
    6. enter -110 in the Dog Price box (the underdog, Tampa Bay +2½ is being offered at -110)
    7. click calculate

    Next, we enter on the bottom half of the calculator the different bets being offered by your local.

    1. Favorite (Carolina -2½):
      • for a spread of 2.5, enter -110 in the fave price box (you can bet the favorite, Carolina -2½ at -110 with your local)
      • for a spread of 2, enter -120 in the fave price box (you can bet Carolina -2½ at -110 with your local and can buy an additional half-point for 10¢)
      • for a spread of 1.5, enter -130 in the fave price box (you can bet Carolina -2 at -120 with your local and can buy an additional half-point-for 10¢)
      • for a spread of 1, enter -140 in the fave price box (you can bet Carolina -1½ at -110 with your local and can buy an additional half-point for 10¢)
    2. Underdog (Tampa Bay +2½):
      • for a spread of 2.5, enter -110 in the dog price box (you can bet the underdog, Tampa Bay +2½ at -110 with your local)
      • for a spread of 3, enter -130 in the dog price box (you can bet Tampa Bay +2½ at -110 with your local and can buy an additional half-point on to the 3 for 20¢)
      • for a spread of 3.5, enter -150 in the dog price box (you can bet Tampa Bay +3 at -130 with your local and can buy an additional half-point off of the 3 for 20¢)
      • for a spread of 4, enter -160 in the dog price box (you can bet Tampa Bay +3½ at -150 with your local and can buy an additional half-point for 10¢)

    Finally, we look in the fave edge and dog edge columns for the relevant expectations:

    Carolina -2½ -7.240%
    Carolina -2 -9.124%
    Carolina -1½ -10.536%
    Carolina -1 -11.092%
    Tampa Bay +2½ -1.851%
    Tampa Bay +3 0.832%
    Tampa Bay +3½ 2.006%
    Tampa Bay +4 2.525%

    This tells us that at approximate edges of 2.006% and 2.525% respectively, the Tampa Bay +3½ and +4 bets are the best. The worst bets are the Carolina -1½ and -1 bets at -10.536% and -11.092%, respectively.

    Now let’s examine the total. First, we need to set up on the top section of the calculator the ‘true’ market as reflected by the offshore market.

    1. set the League to ‘NFL’
    2. set the Bet Type to ‘Total’
    3. set the Odds Type to ‘US’
    4. enter 39.5 in the Total box
    5. enter +103 in the Over Price box (the OVER 39½ is being offered at +103)
    6. enter -113 in the Under Price box (the UNDER 39½ is being offered at -113)
    7. click calculate

    Next, we enter on the bottom half of the calculator the different bets being offered by your local.

    1. OVER 39½:
      • for a total of 39.5, enter -110 in the over price box (you can bet the over 39frac12; at -110 with your local)
      • for a total of 39, enter -120 in the over price box (you can bet the over 39frac12; at -110 with your local and can buy an additional half-point for 10¢)
      • for a total of 38.5, enter -130 in the over price box (you can bet the over 40 at -110 with your local and can buy an additional half-point for 10¢)
      • for a total of 38, enter -140 in the over price box (you can bet the over 40frac12; at -110 with your local and can buy an additional half-point for 10¢)
    2. UNDER 39½:
      • for a total of 39.5, enter -110 in the under price box (you can bet the under 39½ at -110 with your local)
      • for a total of 40, enter -120 in the under price box (you can bet the under 39½ at -110 with your local and can buy an additional half-point 10¢)
      • for a total of 40.5, enter -130 in the under price box (you can bet the under 40 at -110 with your local and can buy an additional half-point for 10¢)
      • for a total of 41, enter -140 in the under price box (you can bet the under 40½ at -110 with your local and can buy an additional half-point for 10¢)

    Finally, we look in the over edge and under edge columns for the relevant expectations:

    OVER 39½ -8.082%
    OVER 39 -10.377%
    OVER 38½ -12.146%
    OVER 38 -12.734%
    UNDER 39½ -1.009%
    UNDER 40 -2.250%
    UNDER 40½ -3.398%
    UNDER 41 -2.412%

    Unlike with the spread, none of these totals imply a positive expectation. If, however, you still wanted to bet on this total, your “least bad” option would be the under 39½. This is indicative of the fact that it is not generally profitable to buy half-points on NFL totals for 10¢ or more.