One of the most profitable positions that you can be in as a sports bettor is if you spot a team that’s in decline, and then you bet against that team. Especially if the team has had success over past years, the odds on that team will be skewed by people’s memory of the past, champion team.
But this year’s team, well, they may not be that good. They may well be in decline.
A sports betting tip for you: be on the lookout for teams and/or individual athletes who used to be better than they are now. In other words, bet against has-beens whenever possible.
2011 NBA Playoffs Not Suitable for Old People
We saw three separate times, in the 2011 NBA Playoffs, how profitable it can be to bet against a team that is aging and in decline.
The San Antonio Spurs were a #1 seed, the best regular season record in the league. But anyone with a pair of eyeballs could see that, as a team, they were getting old, subject to the injuries and general fatigue that plagues older athletes.
San Antonio lost convincingly to the young up-and-coming Memphis Grizzlies.
The same thing, only much uglier and stinkier, happened a few weeks later with the Lakers vs. the Dallas Mavericks. The Lakers were clearly in decline (with a good helping of disarray thrown in) and thus Dallas mercilessly exposed the Lakers’ age-related weaknesses, most notably the Lakers’ complete and total inability to guard a pick-and-roll.
Both the Spurs and the Lakers were heavy favorites, based on past championships won. But both Memphis and Dallas were young and hungry, and ready to euthanize old dogs.
The Boston Celtics re-proved the point a few days later by losing to the Miami Heat. So the point stands, many times teams that used to be really good cease to be that good, but people still think they are that good, but they’re not, so you bet against them and you win.
Do your online NBA betting research here to spot those teams in decline and capitalize.
What You Win When You Win with Youth
The best thing about betting against teams in decline is that you get better odds because the team is so well-regarded based on past performances. Thus there is a certain “leverage” aspect to betting against overrated elder statesmen.
We saw this with Game 4 of the Lakers vs. Mavericks. The Mavericks had been dominating the series in every way, ruling the 4th quarter and killing the Lakers on the 3-point line. Nowitzki had been in the zone and the Mavs were up 3-0 in the series with good reason.
And yet in Game 4 the Mavs were only favored by -2.5. At home, in a game that could mean that they’d just swept the vaunted, hated L.A. Lakers out of the playoffs.
The Mavs slaughtered. And so did the sports bettors who bet on the Mavs, yes, but more than anything, winning sports bettors bet against the tired legs and twisted ankles of the Lakers.
But Greater Still than Even the Immediate Victory
(Note: this last section would more aptly apply to a regular season environment, rather than playoffs when every team around is at least good.)
But greater still than even the first, second, or third victory betting against a team in decline, is the victories of the future that this realization can create within you. Fairly said, some sports bettors may profit from a strategy of never betting until they spot a team in irreversible decline—but then once that decline spotted, bet aggressively.
On a sports knowledge level, being able to make these calls is HUGE for your sports betting capabilities, if only because you won’t need to bet as often if you can get bigger wins. Whenever you are betting against a team in decline, you have a good chance to win that bet.
A problem arises, though, for the less expert sports bettor, perhaps your personal feeling towards certain or varied teams may cloud your better judgment. In cases like these, due to blindness, the sports bettor may only realize the downhill trajectory of her team after the demise has already occurred.
Do all your sports betting research right here and find out where you’ll gain the upper hand over the sportsbook.