Odds makers this week have the biggest spread in history in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Denver Broncos. However, they also have some closer matchups between teams that are leading their respective divisions.
One of those matchups is between the NFC South leading New Orleans Saints and the AFC East leading New England Patriots.
The Saints are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season and are already 3.5 games in front in the division. New England is 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS and leads their division by one game.
New England was beaten last week by Cincinnati 13-6 with quarterback Tom Brady snapping a streak of 52 straight games with at least one touchdown pass.
The line on most sportsbooks such as topbet, betonline and sportsbook.com has New England favored at home by 2.5 points with the over/under point total sitting at 50.5.
The line on Bovada and other books opened with New England favored by 2.5 points although others had the Patriots by just 2. The total opened for some books at 49.5, and was bet up to as high as 51, but is currently on its 50.5.
The Saints and Pats last met during the regular season in 2009, when the Saints, who were favored by 2 points, defeated the Patriots 38-17.
This season the Pats are 2-3 ATS and all three of their ATS losses were when they were the favorites, although two were road games. This is the first game this season for New Orleans where they are the underdog.
With high-powered offenses for both teams, one would think the OVER was a good bet for both. Wrong! The UNDER is 4-1 in the five games for both teams.
Drew Brees has once again started the season strong. He has thrown for 1,722 yards and 12 touchdowns, while only throwing four interceptions. His favorite target has become Jimmy Graham his tight end who has 37 receptions for 593 yards and six touchdowns.
New England will be facing a New Orleans defense that has played much better this season than last. No opponent for the Saints has scored 20 points or higher this season.
However, the Patriots offense should be able to move the ball on both the ground and through the air. New England must protect Brady if they hope to win this, as he is not as good under pressure.
A case in point was his 18 for 38 day against Cincinnati. In that game, he was sacked four times and pressured numerous times more.
Brady however will have Rob Gronkowski back at tight end. He has always been one of Brady’s favorite targets but has been out the entire season with forearm and back problems.
Brady at home following a loss with Gronk back in the lineup sounds good.
Pick: Patriots 35-31