For Sunday’s Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks odds maker opened the total points at 49 but that has been bet down to 48, with a few going as well as 47.5.
Even though the Seahawks are known for having an outstanding defense, No. 1 in the league against the score, there are strong arguments for both the OVER and UNDER in Super Bowl XLIX.
However, the OVER will be discussed here with the UNDER to follow tomorrow.
In the regular season, New England averaged 30.3 points a game, which gave them a 9-7 OVER and 1-1 during the postseason.
New England has lost just four games all season and if you throw out its meaningless lost to Buffalo 17-9, to end the regular season they lost 33-20 to Miami, 41-14 to Kansas City and 26-21 to Green Bay.
If you look into all those road losses, you will find that the Patriots allowed 10 touchdowns and 10 field goals and if the opposing offensives had been more productive in the red zone, the scores could have been much higher.
Seattle’s defense is No. 1 in scoring, but is it due to how good they are or how poor the quarterbacks have been that have played them. In the postseason, Cam Newton led Carolina to three scores on the Seahawks and he was intercepted once as well in the end zone.
Green Bay, led by Aaron Rodgers had six scores but just one touchdown. Was it great defense or poor offensive execution?
Other talented quarterbacks have also had success this season against Seattle, Tony Romo and Philip Rivers both helped their teams score 30 points against Seattle.
The key to shutting the offense for Seattle down is stopping the ground game and putting pressure on Russell Wilson the quarterback.
Of course easier said than accomplished and the defense for New England has no sacks in two playoff games this season.
In its past 9 games versus AFC opponents, Seattle has scored an average of 28.5 points and the OVER in those games was 7-2.
In its four games versus NFC North teams this season, the Patriots scored 21, 30, 34 and 51 points.
Patriots coach Bill Belichick is praised often for defensive schemes but the team has not been super when playing outside Gillette Stadium during the postseason. The defense has allowed an average of 26 point a game in road playoff games and 21 per game in its five Super Bowls.
In seven games in the postseason with Wilson as quarterback, the OVER is 4-3 for Seattle, of which three straight have cashed OVER.
At 48 points, the total could easily cash OVER with New England winning 28-24.