The big day is finally upon us sports fans. The New England Patriots and the New York Giants will at last kick-off Super Bowl XLVI today after two weeks of being inundated with non-stop analysis from loud-mouthed sports pundits and so much hype built up you could cut through it with a knife. For you football fans who haven’t yet placed your sportsbook wagers at one of the top online sportsbooks reviewed on our website, it’s now or never, so let’s take one last final glance at the match-up in store for us today, and make the final assessment on who walks out of Indianapolis carrying the Vince Lombardi trophy and bragging rights for the next year.
Although we’ve pined over the Patriots vs. Giants match-up for well over a week now, and I for one have placed more bets than I care to admit on the various prop bets available across the top sports betting websites like Bovada Sportsbook, which features more than 500 different wagering options on Super Bowl XLVI, I simply can’t resist one last look over the wagering options today, as the betting lines have been actively moving over the past 24 hours or so. Now is also a great time for you procrastinators to check out the list of top sportsbook odds, to place your bets before time runs out wagering for the biggest football game of the season, so let’s take a look at where your money is best spent, for the team you’re backing in the Super Bowl.
For New England pickers who are siding with Tom Brady and the league’s most impressive passing offense, the best straight up wagers on the money line can be found at TopBet Sportsbook and Oddsmaker Sportsbook, both of which have the Patriots as -130 favorites to win this match-up. We’ve seen odds for the Patriots to win reaching -150 on the money line heading into the showdown at Indy today, so without a doubt if you’re putting a wager down on the Pats, make sure you check out TopBet or Oddsmaker before game time. The best looking odds on the money line for the underdog New York Giants however can be found at the Bookmaker Sportsbook, which gives +130 odds for the G-men to win. With most sportsbooks playing it a little safer between +125 and +110 odds, choosing Bookmaker for a straight up pick on the Giants is your best bet for the game.
Against the spread, pretty much every single sportsbook is posting the points at -3 in favor of the Patriots, but there is some difference as to what price you’ll be getting those points at. For instance, at Intertops Sportsbook, taking the Patriots to cover 3 points will be at +100 odds, whereas Oddsmaker, TopBet and the Bookmaker Sportsbook all offer -105 odds for the spread taking New England. For the Giants against the spread, the range is from -120 odds at Intertops to -110 odds at Bovada Sportsbook, so if you’re taking the Giants to stay within 3 points in this match-up, you’ll want to do your wagering at Bodog.eu’s new U.S.-facing home at Bovada today.
The one area where we can find almost all sportsbooks in agreement is on the over/under, which has been bet down from a high of 55.5 points to a current high of 54. Just two of our featured top sportsbooks are giving the over/under at 54 points (Bookmaker and Intertops), while everyone else is coming in at a half-point less, with 53.5 points at -110 odds for either the over or under wager. What’s really interesting here is how much different these two teams have been when it comes down to the over/under, with the Giants staying under in 5 of their last 6 games (which can be attributed to their outstanding defensive efforts), while the Patriots have seen 7 of their last 8 games go over the total points allotted. In the last match-up between these two teams in Super Bowl XLII, only 31 points were scored, and in the last regular season meeting in Week 9 the Giants won by a score of 24-20 at Foxboro Stadium. With neither of these teams scoring more than 23 points in the conference championships two weeks ago, there’s still a good bet to be had going under on this game today, as there’s a high likelihood that one, or both of the defensive units in play will have success holding the opposing side to a below-average offensive performance.
Our Pick to Win:
You can do a little deeper reading into the advantages and disadvantages we’ve pointed out for both these teams coming into this match-up by checking out the article on the New York Giants and the New England Patriots posted this week, but I’ve yet to firmly take a stand on the winner of Super Bowl XLVI, and the analysis wouldn’t be complete without putting the score and the winner out in the public for all to see, now would it?
The New England Patriots have the better of the two quarterbacks in this match-up, as Tom Brady shoots for his record-tying 4th Super Bowl victory, and takes the reins of an offense that averaged 317.8 yards/game through the air. Brady is the more accurate passer (%65.6 completion rate vs. Eli Manning’s %61.0), has the better TD to INT ratio (39:12 to 29:16) and a QB rating that is over 12 points higher. However, Manning is the more mobile quarterback of the two, and as we saw in Super Bowl XLII, Brady is susceptible to a good pass rushing team like the Giants are. Both offenses have the ability to pull off the 2-minute drill with a wealth of receivers on both sides, and rank first (Patriots) and second (Giants) in the league in yards after contact. The Patriots have an advantage with their top receivers being tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who are both extremely difficult for opposing secondaries to match-up against, and both have very good hands. However, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham will spread the already-susceptible New England Patriots secondary very thin, it’s almost moot as to which passing game will have more success.
Thus, this game goes to the defense that is able to better pressure the opposing quarterback, and which side comes away with the victory on the turnover margin. Despite the fact that the Pats have won two straight games with a -3 turnover differential, a big interception or fumble in a game that should be very tight down to the wire will inevitably make the difference in the bottom line. With the Giants playing at their best on the defensive side of the ball over the past 5 games, the trend should continue against New England, especially as New York is quite familiar with how to effectively get at Tom Brady (sacking him 5 times and forcing 2 interceptions in Super Bowl XLII). Putting everything aside though and simply going with the gut, I’m putting my money down on Eli Manning to be the better closer in today’s NFL pinnacle game, as the Patriots secondary is extremely vulnerable against 3 great receivers, and should be struggling towards the end of the game to cover everyone all at once. My final stand on the NFL season takes the Giants to win over the Patriots, 24-20.