March is typically that month where everyone forgets about the National Basketball Association because college basketball gets all the attention. That’s partially true but I haven’t forgotten about the Association and neither should you. Here’s three games featuring road favorites that I like this evening.
Miami (-1) at Milwaukee – The Bucks and Heat are separated by a game and a half in the Eastern Conference Playoff race. Milwaukee is currently in the sixth spot while Miami is seventh. Besides each other, Charlotte is in the eighth spot at the moment and is clawing at the heels of both teams.
Milwaukee appears the most vulnerable as they’ve lost six straight and eight of their last ten. This is not the time to be struggling. The Heat have gone 6-4 over the same stretch. As of right now, it looks like very unlikely either of these teams can reach the fifth seed so what that means is avoiding the seventh spot because that means a date with Cleveland in the first round.
Trends: Miami is 7-3 straight up in their last ten against the Bucks… Milwaukee is 4-6 against the spread in their last ten versus the Heat… Miami is 32-34-3 ATS this season… The Bucks are 15-18 ATS at home in 2015.
The Pick: I like the Heat on the road tonight to cover.
San Antonio (-2) at Dallas – The Spurs and Mavs are in the sixth and seventh spots out West respectively and are separated by just a game. They have a fairly good lead over eighth seeded Oklahoma City but both teams have their eyes set on teams in front of them. The Houston Rockets, Portland Trail Blazers and LA Clippers are all within two or less games from San Antonio.
The Mavericks have lost two in a row and have gone 5-5 in their last ten. This continues to make me wonder if the Rajon Rondo trade wasn’t a bad move after all. San Antonio is 8-2 in their last ten games and have won three straight. Are they getting hot at the right time?
Trends: The Spurs are 6-4 straight up against the Mavericks in their last ten games against them… Dallas is 7-3 against the spread in their last ten games versus the Spurs… San Antonio is 17-18 ATS on the road this season while the Mavericks are 17-18 ATS at home.
The Pick: It’s hard to pick against the Spurs this time of year so I won’t. Take them to cover.
Golden State (-5) at Portland – The Warriors have already wrapped up a playoff spot and with a seven and a half game lead over second seeded Memphis, the number one seed isn’t far off. If the playoffs ended today, Portland would have a crazy-good match-up with the fifth seeded Clippers. That would probably be more ideal than a first round go with the defending champion Spurs.
Both teams are heading in opposite directions as the Warriors have won five in a row while the Blazers have lost four in a row.
Trends: Golden State is 6-4 straight up in their last ten games against the Blazers… Portland is 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 contests versus the Warriors… Golden State is 16-18 ATS on the road this season… Portland is 19-4-1 ATS at home in the 2014-2015 season.
The Pick: I like the Blazers tonight getting the points. Plus, you never know when Steve Kerr will want to rest guys.