The National Football League is now well underway with it’s’ preseason schedule heading for week three. As the injuries mount and the teams come together, you are in a position where you’re ready to lay money on the team you like to win the Super Bowl. Don’t just look at the odds which of course are important but there are other things to keep in mind moving forward.
If you’re into trends or believe ever so lightly in superstitions then I’ve got some things that you need to see before you slap the cash down on your Super Bowl favorite.
1. Preseason records don’t mean a whole lot with one exception. If the team you are considering is currently 0-2 in the preseason, hold your money. I say this because only one time in the Super Bowl era has a team gone winless in the preseason and gone on to win the Super Bowl. That was the 1982 Washington Redskins.
Furthermore, only two other teams have had winless preseason’s and made the Super Bowl and those were the 2000 New York Giants and the 1990 Buffalo Bills.
2. Check out the Eagles’ home opener. The last four Super Bowl champions, Baltimore, New York, Green Bay and New Orleans, were all the home-opening opponents for the Philadelphia Eagles. I think that trend dies this year at least on paper because all four of those teams were legitimate Super Bowl contenders entering their respective seasons.
This year, the Eagles open on the road in Washington before returning to Philly for the home opener against……… The San Diego Chargers. Of the four previous teams and this year’s opponent, the Chargers are by far the one you’d have picked last to go to the Super Bowl so this is a trend to be very careful of entering the season.
3. Check the Patriots’ Schedule. The last eight Super Bowl champions have played the New England Patriots in the regular season. None of those were from the AFC East either meaning the trend doesn’t apply to the Dolphins, Bills or Jets. At least not yet anyway. This season, the Pats have the NFC South, the AFC North and then Denver and Houston.
4. Speaking of the Patriots… And NFC East. The past seven Super Bowl Champions have played both the New England Patriots and have had the NFC East on their schedule. This applies to only one team in 2013 and it’s a big time favorite too. The Denver Broncos will play at Dallas and at New York and will have Philadelphia and Washington at home. Their game with the Patriots is New England on November 24th.
5. 11 is a very important number. This is a stat you really can’t do much with because it depends on how the season progresses, but it does provide an important indicator of Super Bowl success. 39 of the 47 Super Bowl champs have had at least 11 or more wins. This trend has taken a beating in recent years though. Last season, the Ravens had 10 regular season wins and the year before the New York Giants finished 9-7. The Green Bay Packers finished their Super Bowl winning season at 10-6 so that’s three straight years this trend has failed.
Be very careful with this trend because of the fact that Super Bowl winning teams over the last eight or so years have typically been teams who have gotten hot late in the season. You have to decide whether or not the team you think will win the Super Bowl will get to that 11-win total. Nonetheless it’s a trend to pay attention to when making your final decision.