Upsets Not Common In NFL Conference Championships

The favorites disappointed during the NFL divisional playoffs as the point spread belonged to last weekend’s underdogs.

The favorites were only 1-3 against the spread, with just Seattle at -13.5 covering in its 31-17 win over Carolina.

At the opposite end was Denver at -9.5 being beaten outright 24-13 by Indianapolis.

Then with Green Bay and New England, both won outright, but neither of them covered.

The Patriots at -7 were winners 35-31 and the Packers -5.5 won 26-21.

Those types of games leave the favorite bettors upset and the underdog lovers, happy campers.

Now the betting focus moves to this weekend’s conference championships.

The NFC game has the Seahawks at -7.5 against Green Bay, while the AFC game has New England -7 over a surging Indianapolis.

Some bettors could give the two underdogs a shot with relatively large spreads thinking of last weekend’s games.

Green Bay has never been a 7 points or higher underdog in any career start for Aaron Rodgers. The Colts are 12-5-1 ATS during the season with a mark of 6-3 ATS on the road.

According to Bovada and betonline, both the Packers and Colts have enticing money line numbers at +270 and +250 respectively.

Upsets are not a common occurrence in the conference championships. According to topbet and sportsbook.com, since 1979 only six road dogs of 7 or more points have won their game outright during the conference championships.

The last time it happened was in 2012 when Baltimore defeated New England as an 8-point road dog.

Of those six road dogs since 1978 to win outright, four then went on to be Super Bowl champions the same season.

Both underdogs have not won during the conference championships since 2000. That year, Baltimore upset Oakland as a 6.5-point dog and the New York Giants upset Minnesota as a 1-point dog.

However, the past 15 seasons, the underdogs are a combined 16-13-1 ATS during the conference championships, with 11 of them winning outright.

In just 5 of those 15 seasons, did both underdogs cover.

Underdog bettors must think whether the favorites are vulnerable enough so the underdog can win.

New England looks to be shakier than Seattle. The Patriots allowed 428 yards to Baltimore. They gave up 31 points as well.

New England is resourceful, tough and skilled, and has won the past five straight head-to-head games versus Indianapolis.

Green Bay will have it tough against the Seahawks. Seattle is 7-0 SU and ATS in its past 7 games overall.

They look tougher to beat outright than New England does as the two favorites.

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