The Super Bowl is just two days away and the betting lines are taking shape. Bettors are wondering how the weather will affect the outcome, point spread and point total. Some are wondering if the line will finally reach Denver -3.
The weather storyline for the Super Bowl has not been hyped up much in the media and that has helped the sports book, as they have seen an increase in action including wagers of six figures in Vegas for both teams, as the weather forecast continues to improve.
Last week, the forecast was calling for freezing temperatures with as high as a 60% change of precipitation. Some betting props used on Bovada, topbet and other sports books were delayed because of worry over the weather.
Last week for example on betonline and sportsbook.com the UNDER was a popular bet due to the worry over the possible inclement weather. However, as the weather outlook brightened, so did the bets for the OVER.
One reason the betting is taking a turn towards the OVER in the point total is the wind. Each new weather report being released is showing lower wind speeds for Sunday’s big game and that will influence many bettors, especially smart money that will start to appear between now and kickoff.
Early Friday morning most shops had the point total on 47.5 but others were as high as 48 and as low as 47.
Current forecasts are calling for temperatures in the 40s with lows in just the upper 30s, little or no chance of precipitation and light winds.
No one can completely forget about the weather since there is a frontal system predicted to hit western upstate New York on Sunday and could, albeit the chance is remote, hit the area.
However, for smart money and for those quarterbacks with a sloppy spiral, it is the wind that factors in the most and that is not expected to be a factor on Sunday.
That should therefore favor Peyton Manning, as his aerial attack is so important to the Broncos offense.
The current line of -2.5 on Denver is holding steady, but some are wondering if it will jump to -3.
Opinions differ and no sports book of note has pushed it up to -3. Even with the majority of shops holding more money on Denver, they were hesitant to move the line up due to a worry that big sharp money will then pounce on Seattle at +3.
Most odds makers do not think it will go to -3 and if it were to get there they believe it would be a weak +3 (-120) and nothing more. They also say that there is a ZERO chance of its making its way to -3.5.
Some wagering sites believe 90% of the money wagered on the Super Bowl will be bet between Friday and Sunday’s kickoff.