Week 15 is history in the NFL and OVER players could not be happier to see it gone. Of the 16 games played in Week 15, 13 cashed on the UNDER and weather was not a big factor for a week in mid December.
Through the first 14 weeks of the season, the OVER was 104-103-2, which is almost a perfect 50/50, making a week at 3-13 an anomaly.
However, the poor performance of the OVER gave credence to the fact that totals are higher this season than in past.
For example, the average total for Week 15 was 46.2 points according to Bovada and topbet closing lines.
In comparison, the average Week 15 point total in 2009 was only 41.8 points, according to betonline and sportsbook.com historical data.
A decade ago, in 2004, the point total was 42.2 per game.
This past week, the San Francisco-Seattle game was the lowest point total for the week at 38. However, in 2009, five point totals were 39 or less with 35.5 being the lowest and in 2004, five games had point totals of between 34 and 37.
During 2004, 83 games in the NFL had point totals that were 38 or less. In 2009, there were 41 games.
Now a 38-point total is a rarity, in fact the total between San Francisco and Seattle was only the second one this entire season that was 38 points or less.
Totals are higher this season for bookmakers because defensive fouls are being called tighter, more teams are playing up-tempo offenses and quarterbacks are completing a higher percentage of their passes.
Game to Pay Attention to
Miami is hosting Minnesota and the Dolphins are favored by 6.5 points. Minnesota is finishing its season strong, while Miami is struggling. Once a team that was undervalued, the Dolphins are now overvalued.
Jacksonville visits Tennessee as a 3-point favorite. The Jaguars likely will be able to shout down the ground game of the Titans and force Charlie Whitehurst the backup quarterback into tough situations.
Trends to Look at For Week 16
Seattle, Minnesota and Buffalo have the longest current streaks of covering the spread at four games.
San Francisco and Tennessee have the longest losing streaks of covering the spread at four games.
The New York Giants are 2-6 against the spread in 2014 as an underdog.
Seattle is 11-7 SU and 9-9 ATS as a favorite on the road under coach Pete Carroll.
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its 2014 home games.